Assume the following facts
On the basis of these facts there is no reason to think that the
lessee is reasonably certain to exercise its option to extend the
lease term. But it is equally true to say that it is not reasonably
certain not to exercise the option. Both outcomes are realistic and
viable.
On the facts as given in this example it would follow that
the lease is not a short lease.
The lease would be a long funding lease if, looking at the
15-year period, the lease met the lease payments test or the useful
economic life test. On the face of it, the useful economic life
test is not met (as 15 is 60% of 25 years) but it would be worth
checking the useful economic life is at least 23.08 years (15 is
65% of 23.08). The finance lease test is not met on the facts in
this example.
In reality there may, of course, be facts that support the
idea that the lessee is reasonably certain not to extend the lease
term.
As with other enquiries involving consideration of the lease
term you should establish all the facts and seek advice from CT
& VAT (Technical) before taking a formal view on whether an
option is reasonably certain not to be exercised.